Association of interleukin-6 and CD4+ T cells and two-week prognosis of patients with COVID-19: a predictive role

Q.-S. Mu, H. Li, H. Ye, Y.-D. Liu, J. Bai, L. Yuan, K.-J. Wang, K.-Q. Lu, Y.-L. Liu

Department of Gerontology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China. qingshuangmu8@126.com

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• Infectious Diseases

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the association of inflammation and immune responses with the outcomes of patients at various stages, and to develop risk stratification for improving clinical practice and reducing mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: We included 77 patients with primary outcomes of either death or survival. Demographics, clinical features, comorbidities, and laboratory tests were compared. Linear, logistic, and Cox regression analyses were performed to determine prognostic factors.

RESULTS: The average age was 59 years (35-87 years). There were 12 moderate cases (16.2%), 42 severe cases (54.5%), and 23 critical cases (29.9%); and 41 were male (53.2%). Until March 20, 68 cases were discharged (88.3%), and nine critically ill males (11.7%) died. Interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels on the 1st day were compared with IL-6 values on the 14th day in the severe and the critically ill surviving patients (F=4.90, p=0.034, β=0.35, 95% CI: 0.00-0.10), and predicted death in the critically ill patients (p=0.028, β=0.05, OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10). CD4+ T-cell counts at admission decreased the hazard ratio of death (p=0.039, β=-0.01, hazard ratio=0.99, 95% CI: 0.98-1.00, and median survival time 13.5 days).

CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrated that IL-6 levels and CD4+ T-cell count at admission played key roles of predictors in the prognosis, especially for critically ill patients. High levels of IL-6 and impaired CD4+t cells are seen in severe and critically ill patients with COVID-19.

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