Analysis and prediction of risk factors of ovarian hyperstimulation caused by Long-acting GnRH agonist protocol in follicular phase

Y.-H. Ni, H.-L. Zhang, W.-W. Jiang

Department of Gynecology, Department of Reproductive Center, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China. pg33_lightning@126.com

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• Gynecology

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to explore the risk factors of ovarian hyperstimulation in patients undergoing long-acting gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist protocol in follicular phase of ovulation induction therapy and to establish a predictive model.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 1289 patients who received Long-acting GnRH agonist protocol in follicular phase for ovulation induction in the Fujian Provincial Maternity and Child Health Hospital from July 1, 2018, to July 31, 2019, were selected. Among them, 33 patients developed moderate/severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. The relevant indicators of the two groups were followed up for comparison, and Lasso regression was used to screen independent risk factors and construct a nomogram prediction model.  A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the prediction model.

RESULTS: Univariate analysis suggested that the woman’s age, basal antral follicle number (AFC), total gonadotropin (Gn) dose, Gn starting dose, basal estradiol (E2) level, basal anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) value, number of follicles obtained, Gn start day E2, the difference in follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) value and Gn starting day were statistically significant. Significant indicators of univariate analysis and clinical significance were included in the Lasso regression model, and AFC, woman’s age, polycystic ovary syndrome, Gn starting dose and number of follicles obtained were finally screened as final predictors. The ROC curve indicated that the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.812.

CONCLUSIONS: Ovarian hyperstimulation caused by long-acting GnRH agonist protocol in follicular phase for ovulation stimulation has a certain predictability. Paying attention to the patient’s age, AFC, Gn starting dose, number of follicles obtained, and whether PCOS is evident may lead to early detection of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome, which has clinical guiding significance.

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