The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio as a prognostic factor in COVID-19 patients: a case-control study

G. La Torre, M. Marte, A.P. Massetti, S.M. Carli, F. Romano, C.M. Mastroianni, M. Minorenti, F. Alessandri, C. Ajassa, M. Fusconi, M. De Vincentiis, D. de Meo, C. Villani, M. Cardi, F. Pugliese, COVID-Collaborative group

Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy. giuseppe.latorre@uniroma1.it

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• Infectious Diseases

OBJECTIVE: SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) has been identified in China as responsible for viral pneumonia, now called COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019). Patients infected can develop common symptoms like cough and sore throat, and, in severe cases, acute respiratory syndrome and even death. To optimize the available resources, it is necessary to identify in advance the subjects that will develop a more serious illness, therefore requiring intensive care.The neutrophil / lymphocyte ratio (NLR) parameter, resulting from the blood count, could be a significant marker for the diagnosis and management of risk stratification.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective, single-center case-control observational study was conducted. The differential cell count of leukocytes, the NLR and the clinical course of patients hospitalized in intensive care with COVID-19 were analyzed, comparing them with other patients (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) and healthy individuals selected among workers of the Teaching Hospital Policlinico Umberto I in Rome.

RESULTS: 370 patients (145 cases and 225 controls) were included in the case-control study, 211 males (57%) and 159 females (43%). The average age of the population was 63 years (SD 16.35). In the group of cases, out of 145 patients, 57 deaths and 88 survivors were recorded, with a lethality rate of 39.3%. The group of cases has an NLR of 7.83 (SD = 8.07), a much higher value than the control group where an NLR of 2.58 was recorded (SD = 1.93) (p <0.001). The Neutrophils / Lymphocytes ratio may prove to be a diagnostic factor for COVID-19, an NLR> 3.68 revealed an OR 10.84 (95% CI = 6.47 – 18.13) (p <0.005).

CONCLUSIONS: The value of NLR considered together with the age variable allows a risk stratification and allows the development of diagnostic and treatment protocols for patients affected by COVID-19. A high neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio suggests worse survival. Risk stratification and management help alleviate the shortage of medical resources and reduce the mortality of critically ill patients.

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