A nomogram to predict major adverse cardiovascular events of patients with acute chest pain, Non-ST-segment deviation, and normal troponin concentrations

Z.-N. Cao, K. Wang, G.-X. Zuo, M.-H. Zhang, X.-G. Jia, Y. Li, C.-C. Wang, X.-C. Zhang, X.-B. Li, X.-P. Du

Department of Cardiology, Tianjin Fifth Central Hospital, Tianjing, P.R. China. duxinpingdr@163.com

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• Cardiology

OBJECTIVE: To explore the potential indicators including patients’ characteristics, electrocardiogram (ECG), echocardiography, and serological assay in predicting the major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) within 1 year for patients with low-risk chest pain with a nomogram.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: The detected indicators of patients with low-risk chest pain were obtained as the alternative predictors for MACE. After the 1-year follow-up, patients with MACE were enrolled in the MACE group while the remained patients were in the non-MACE group. A nomogram was constructed based on the multivariable Cox regression to link the independent predictors and the MACE within 1 year for patients with low-risk chest pain.

RESULTS: The incidence of MACE within 1 year was 6.94% according to the follow-up result. Multivariate analysis revealed that risk factors of CAD, P-terminal force in lead V1 (PTFV1), C-reactive protein (CRP), and transmitral inflow early diastolic peak velocity (E wave) /peak early diastolic velocity (Em) (E/Em) were the independent predictors for the MACE. A nomogram incorporating these independent predictors with a good discrimination (0.79 in C-index) and calibration was constructed to predict the incidence of MACE within 1 year. It could be used to help select the patients with a high risk of MACE and develop preventive treatment strategies.

CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors of CAD, PTFV1, CRP, and E/Em were the independent predictors for the MACE within 1 year in patients with low-risk chest pain. The present nomogram provides a user friendly tool in the prediction of MACE for these patients.

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