A nomogram predicting the outcome of gallbladder cancer patients with different target organ metastases

Z.-P. Xu, J.-H. Gong, J.-P. Gong, J.-H. Li

Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China. 2021120402@stu.cqmu.edu.cn

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• Oncology

OBJECTIVE: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is a highly aggressive malignancy that is associated with a high mortality rate globally. Unfortunately, distant metastases are often detected at the time of diagnosis. Therefore, we investigated the survival outcomes of gallbladder cancer patients with different metastases targeting organs, analyzed their prognosis, and explored their hidden clinical value.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Through data screening, a total of 398 patients with GBC with different target organ metastases were analyzed retrospectively, including patients with solitary bone metastasis, solitary liver metastasis, solitary lung metastasis, and multiple organ metastases. The survival results of different variables were plotted as Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to screen study variables and identify independent prognostic factors. Finally, a nomogram was established to systematically evaluate the prognosis of patients with multiple organ metastasis.

RESULTS: In the patient cohort, thirteen (3.3%) had solitary bone metastasis, 290 (72.9%) had solitary liver metastasis, 22 (5.5%) had solitary lung metastasis, and 73 (18.3%) had multiple organ metastases (including liver, lung, bone and brain metastases). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that the overall survival (OS) of patients with solitary lung metastasis was significantly better than that of patients with other organ metastasis (p = 0.038), while the difference in tumor cancer-specific survival (CSS) of this factor was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Surgery and chemotherapy were independent prognostic protective factors for OS and CSS. The OS-related models exhibited a C-index of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.71-0.77), while the CSS-related models showed a slightly lower C-index of 0.73 (0.70-0.76). Both the OS- and CSS-related clinical prediction models had good accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that different target organ metastases may affect the OS of patients with distant metastatic GBC. Patients receiving palliative surgery, primary site resection, radical surgery, and chemotherapy have significant survival benefits in terms of OS and CSS.

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