Will weather stem the spread of the COVID-19 in Pakistan?

M. Uzair, I. Kaleem, M. Arshad, R.S. Ali, A. Zafar, M. Iqbal, S. Bashir

Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Basic and Applied Sciences, International Islamic University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan. shahidbpk13@gmail.com

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• Infectious Diseases

The pandemic of COVID-19 started spreading more exponentially across Pakistan since the end of February 2020. Numerous models and factors have been used to estimate predictions of the prevalence and severity of COVID-19 infections around the globe. While many factors play a role in the spread of COVID-19, climate and weather conditions are considered key elements in the transmission of COVID-19. Many researchers believe that recent increases in COVID-19 cases correlate strongly with local temperatures and factors (such as humidity, weather conditions, etc.) related to it. In this manuscript we test the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 spread is temperature-dependent by using the available data derived from Pakistan. The present review focuses on the relationship between temperature and COVID-19, examining the virus’s viability and infectivity under various conditions. Our findings indicate that the trough and crest of the COVID-19 wave observed in 2020 are likely to repeat in the summer and winter of 2021, respectively. In Pakistan, temperatures, and humidity significantly affect the COVID-19 transmission and incidence. Like other types of beta-coronaviruses (ß-CoVs), the spread of COVID-19 may depend upon a great deal on temperature.

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